Finally some good news on the Covid-19 front. OWS (Operation Warp Speed) has announced they expect full eradication of Covid and the end of the Covid pandemic by the middle of May.
This timeline and the prediction that the Covid pandemic will end in May comes from the head of “Operation Warp Speed” (a collaborative program which includes the CDC and HHS), Dr. Moncef Slaoui.
“When asked how long it may take to reach herd immunity, which would potentially allow for a return to normalcy, Slaoui confirmed that, normally, with the level of efficacy we have – 95% – then 70% or so of the population being immunized would allow true herd immunity to take place,” Slaoui said.
“That is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, something like that, based on our plans.” – Source
What Is Operation Warp Speed?
Essentially, Operation Warp Speed is a partnership between the highest authorities and experts in regards to the battle against Covid-19. Including the CDC and HHS.
“OWS is a partnership among components of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and the Department of Defense (DoD).” – Source
The goal of the project is to fast track Covid research, development, and distribution.
“Operation Warp Speed’s goal is to produce and deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccines with the initial doses available by January 2021, as part of a broader strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics (collectively known as countermeasures).” – Source
In short, the purpose of Operation Warp Speed is in the name. The world needs a vaccine now.
Thankfully it is now becoming apparent that the project is certainly fast-tracking research. Dr. Moncef Slaoui is confident that Operation Warp Speed will end the Covid pandemic in May.
What Is Herd Immunity And How To We Get There?
“Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune.” – Source
The concept of Herd Immunity is easy to understand. If a high enough percentage of the population is immune, then the entire population by default becomes immune.
But what is that percentage needed for Covid?
That’s where things get complicated.
“The threshold, or minimum percentage of immune individuals needed to establish herd immunity, is dependent upon how infectious the disease is. For example, it is estimated that 93% to 95% of a population needs to be vaccinated to establish herd immunity against measles, whereas the threshold for polio is 80% to 86%.” – Source
Different diseases obviously vary in how infectious they are.
According to Dr. Moncef Slaoui, we only need to reach 70% immunization to reach true herd immunization. Which he is confident can be obtained by May. – Source
Can The Covid Pandemic Really Be Over By May?
If Dr. Moncef Slaoui and his team are as efficient as he is confident, then it is very likely the Covid pandemic will be over in May.
“Dr. Slaoui went on to describe the news that Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines are 90% and 94.5% effective as “exhilarating.”
“If you look more into the specifics of the data, there were 11 cases of severe disease in the placebo group and zero cases in the vaccine group in the Moderna trial, meaning that this vaccine is highly, highly effective against severe disease, it’s effective in older people … it’s really excellent data.” – Source
Slaoui doesn’t seem to have any doubts.
Lockdowns have been rolled out, rolled in, and rolled out again. Numbers have gone down and resurged before.
After being promised so much and told so many different things, a country can only trust “experts” for so long. Let’s all hope Dr. Slaoui is the real expert we have been waiting for.